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Presence Country
Food Security Outlook

Overall good food stocks with the end of the growing season

February 2017 to September 2017

February - May 2017

Guinea February 2017 Food Security Projections for February to May

June - September 2017

Guinea February 2017 Food Security Projections for June to September

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Post-harvest activities, such as the threshing of rice crops in mangrove and alluvial plain and lowland areas, and the cleaning and drying of cassava crops and market gardening, activities are still underway in most prefectures across the country, providing households with typical levels of food and income.

  • Food reserves are being steadily replenished with the completion of the average to above-average harvests for the 2016/17 season across the country. However, certain areas affected by dry spells, floods, and infestations of potato crops in Middle Guinea in August 2016 have reported small production shortfalls.

  • There are adequate market supplies of cereals, and food reserves are being replenished with fresh crops from the good harvests across the country. Rice prices will be relatively stable for the next three months before rising in anticipation of the month-long observance of Ramadan. Prices for imported foods such as sugar, onions, and cooking oil will follow this same trend. There will be a seasonal rise in prices with the depletion of household food stocks between June and August, which marks the lean season in Guinea.

    This report is being translated to English.

National overview

Current situation

Cereal production

Despite the reported weather anomalies during the 2016/2017  growing season (floods, dry spells, and pest infestations of potato crops in Fouta), there are generally average to above-average levels of national cereal production for this past growing season, which is improving household food availability. However, there are reports of localized shortfalls in cereal production in general and rice and maize production in particular, primarily in Siguiri.

The flooding at the end of July/beginning of August and the ensuing dry spells reduced rice production in certain parts of Lower Guinea such as Boffa and Boké. Market gardening activities are still underway, providing average to above-average revenues for farming households engaged in these activities.

Food stocks are being replenished with fresh crops from the average to above-average harvests and income from the sale of market garden crops, which is improving dietary diversity and keeping poor households from becoming market-dependent.

Cash crops

Trade in crops on domestic (cereals, tubers, and oilseeds), border (palm oil, potatoes, peanuts, and market garden produce), and international (coffee, cocoa, pineapples, cashews, and rubber) markets has been steadily picking up since the eradication of Ebola virus disease. The steady drop in the international market price of rubber for the past several months is not likely to inspire an expansion in these crop-growing activities. On the other hand, the expansion in domestic cashew production due to its attractive price since last year is generating above-average levels of income for households growing these crops.

Pastoral conditions

Conditions are stable, with no signs of any major epizootic outbreaks. The good levels of pasture and watering holes with the heavy rainfall activity are creating good animal watering conditions and keeping livestock (cattle, sheep, and goats) in good physical shape, which should help improve milk production. There are no reports of any major disputes between farmers and pastoralists.

Fishing conditions

In addition to ocean fishing activities and fishing activities in large rivers and streams, there are growing numbers of fish farming operations, particularly in the Forest Zone, which are helping to improve the availability of fish as well as the incomes of fishing households. Available fish stocks for this season are better than last year and above the five-year average.

There are adequate market supplies of fresh and frozen fish and processed fish products. Supply levels are average compared with last year and satisfactory compared with the average for the last three years.

Cereal markets

The marketing season for locally grown crops and presence of imported rice are ensuring regular market supplies of cereals. Market cereal supplies are average compared with last year and close to the five-year average. Prices for rice (local and imported varieties), which is the main cereal consumed by Guinean households, are presently stable. Despite the good marketing season for locally grown crops, prices for local varieties of rice have not dropped in line with normal seasonal trends and are still between 5000 and 6500 GNF/kg. Prices for imported rice have inched up slightly from 5500 GNF in 2016 to 6000 GNF in 2017. The current situation is relatively similar to trends in the last five years.

There are more than adequate supplies of animals on livestock markets. Supplies are slightly lower than last year with certain pastoralists driving their herds to grazing areas and, in some cases, Sierra Leone.

The rise in prices for livestock and meat by approximately 10 percent since last year is holding, which is limiting access to this food source for poor households. Price levels are up from the same time in 2016 and above the five-year average.

Economic activity

With the growing importance of gold mining activities in this country, the government has passed legislation for the launching of pilot projects, the completion of the survey, and the parceling process already underway in all gold-bearing areas. The legislation is designed to help mainstream artisanal gold-mining operations into the formal sector of the economy.

The government incentives designed to promote the development of cashew production will allow growers to earn amounts of income from these activities. The steady devaluation of the local currency will help promote exports of Guinean crops (small quantities), but will hurt consumers looking to purchase imported foods.

Most migration is to mining areas within the country and in neighboring countries. Migration income helps households improve their standard of living and finance other economic activities such as trade and motorbike taxi services in cities and large population centers. Income from foreign remittances is oftentimes invested in farming activities, though there is very little data with respect to the amount of income involved and the sector in which it is used.

Food security situation

In general, crop production for this year is similar to last year’s production and above the five-year average. This is helping to promote good cereal availability across the country and good food consumption. Current prices for rice, the main cereal consumed by Guinean households, and average supplies of tubers and market garden produce are helping to give most households average food access. Thus, all regions of the country are currently experiencing Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity.

Assumptions

The most likely scenario for February through September 2017 is based on the following assumptions with respect to nationwide conditions:

  • Rainfall: The first rains for 2017 have already fallen in Yomou prefecture in the Forest Zone and Dalaba prefecture in Middle Guinea. The first rains normally begin in April in all parts of the country and continue through the month of September, peaking in July/August/September. Cumulative rainfall totals are expected to be near-average, producing typical levels of seasonal flooding.
  • Crop production: The ANASA (National Bureau of Agricultural Statistics) estimates the growth rate for rice production in Guinea at 6.17 percent. The expected average rainfall will allow for the timely planting of the usual areas in crops in all parts of the country. The pursuit of hydro-agricultural development projects and the farm input assistance (seeds, fertilizer, and plant health products) provided by the government to boost crop yields will help promote average to above-average levels of crop production for 2017-2018 in all parts of the country, with harvests getting underway by the end of August or the beginning of September.
  • Cash crops: In general, revenues from cash crops for the 2016/2017 season will be larger than last year and above the five-year average with the revitalization of cashew and cotton production and the rebound in crop trading activities (for palm oil, peanuts, and pineapples) on cross-border and international markets. The peak period for this source of income-generation is between April and June. The losses from the fungal infestations of potato crops in Fouta in August 2016 will be brought way down for the 2017/2018 season compared with last year by the various control measures implemented by farmers’ organizations and extension workers (availability of plant health products, introduction of new improved seeds, farmer training in crop management techniques).
  • Market garden production: The current expansion of market gardening activities in most Guinean prefectures driven by the high levels of income-generation from these activities and the training of farmers in crop management techniques by specialized agencies will help promote average to above-average levels of crop production between February and September 2017.

Sources of food and income

  • Migration: There will be average to above-average levels of income from mining activities (gold, diamonds, and bauxite) with the expansion in mining areas compared with previous years in spite of the new envisioned measures affecting artisanal mining activities requiring miners to obtain a license and the sharp decline in the productivity of diamond mining operations. The growing numbers of bauxite mining companies in Lower Guinea will attract even more labor, producing large amounts of migration income.
  • Farm labor: As usual, the smaller labor pool with the departure of workers for gold mining sites and the failure by more and more of these workers to return home to engage in farming activities will keep wage rates high. As a result, wage rates will be above-average but, in general, will generate below-average levels of wage income due to the smaller than average numbers of farm laborers.
  • Fishing: Fishing activities, starting up in October 2016, will continue through June 2017 with the falling water levels on inland waterways for freshwater fishing activities. There will be a slowdown in both ocean fishing and inland fishing activities in July-August and September at the height of the rainy season. The larger catches between February and June will strengthen the incomes of fishing households, putting them at or above the average.
  • Pastoral conditions: The timely start of the rains in May 2017 will help spur the usual new pasture growth and replenishment of watering holes, promoting a normal return in animal production. This year’s stable animal health conditions should continue through September 2017.
  • Income from livestock-raising activities: The expected levels of animal production should help pastoral households generate average amounts of income from the sale of animals, milk, skins, and hides, particularly with the favorable conditions created by the pick-up in cross-border trade and steady devaluation of the Guinean franc against foreign currencies. Prices will stay above figures for last year and the five-year average.

Markets

  • Market supplies: With the crop marketing season in progress in all parts of the country, food stocks are at good levels and there are good market supplies. Moreover, available supplies of imported rice will maintain good cereal availability on local markets through September 2017 and keep prices relatively stable and, thus, affordable for poor households.
  • Cross-border trade: In spite of a few problems with road harassment, there will be a steady normalization of trade between Guinea and neighboring countries and other countries around the world throughout the outlook period (February through September 2017).
  • Food prices: The good harvests for the 2016/2017 crop year will keep rice prices stable through June. This will be followed by small price increases between July and August, with the presence of fresh crops on local markets stabilizing prices as of September 2017. Prices for locally grown parboiled rice have been relatively stable, at between 5000 and 6500 GNF/kg, while the price of imported parboiled rice is up from 5000 to 5500 GNF/kg, or by approximately 10 percent. Prices for imported milled rice range from 4000 to 4500 GNF/kg. These prices will remain stable, facilitating access to rice supplies for most households.
  • Prices of cash crops: In general, prices for all major cash crops will stay in line with the average throughout the outlook period from February through September. The good marketing season between March and June 2017 will bring the exceptionally high price of oil in February back down to normal levels. Prices for cashews have been on the rise ever since the government set a farm-gate floor price of 5000 GNF/kg in April 2016.
  • Socioeconomic environment: The steady devaluation of the Guinean franc will help promote exports, particularly of food crops and animal products.
Most likely food security outcomes

The good household food availability with the good harvests between October 2016 and January 2017 will continue to improve the food security situation through June 2017. The normal decline in household food stocks in July and August will be eased by the harvests of fresh crops early in September. The current average to large availability of locally grown (cereals, tubers, and oilseeds) and imported crops at the end of the growing season will help keep food prices close to average, which will help give households average food access. Average levels of household income from the normal pursuit of income-generating activities throughout the outlook period will help most households maintain an average diet. Even with the usual decline in food availability and dietary diversity between July and August, which marks the lean season in Guinea, households will continue to experience Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food insecurity through September 2017 owing to the stable near-average prices of local and imported varieties of rice. There should be an improvement in the food security situation in September with the first harvests of upland rice, maize, fonio, and cassava, compared with conditions during the lean season.

 

For more information on the outlook for specific areas of concern, please click the download button at the top of the page for the full report.

About Scenario Development

To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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