Presence Country
Special Report

Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

July 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

In June 2016, FEWS NET released an alert describing the national and regional implications of declining global crude oil prices on the Nigerian economy and subsequent currency depreciation since 2015. Within the context of this national economic shock, more than 3 million people in Northeast Nigeria already face significant food insecurity due to the Boko-Haram conflict. The Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin provides a summary of emerging market trends in Nigeria and the broader region. 

Key Messages

  • Recent increases in oil revenues are driving Nigeria’s economy out of recession gradually as major economic indicators continue to improve (increased foreign reserve levels and declining inflation). The 2017Q1 GDP also stood at -0.52 percent compared to -1.73 percent of 2016Q4. 

  • The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) continued to restrict the availability of foreign cash reserves for importing certain products like rice, wheat, and sugar. These goods are particularly important for Nigerian consumers in the southern part of the country, who rely on them heavily to meet their food needs. This has contributed to limiting the availability of many essential goods in major southern markets. 

  • With the protracted conflict and insecurity in the Northeast, local marketing basins that were once largely surplus-producing are now deficit, relying on imports of supplies of major staples from neighboring states and even from markets in northwest Nigeria. Most recently, insurgents’ activities in the Northeast have compounded the effects of the on-going lean-season, resulting in depleted stocks in the major reference markets. A recent assessment found that current stock levels are very limited and only expected to last a few months. 

  • Prices for white maize, an important staple food in the diets of vulnerable populations in the Northeast, are projected to increase further due to availability issues as the lean season peaks. 

  • The revised cash transfer value from the harmonization efforts of the Food Security Sector Working Group, which covers 70% of urban and 100% of rural survival caloric needs, and the recommendation for active price monitoring, will ensure sustained purchasing power of food assistance beneficiaries. The regional price hike, however, is an additional burden on limited funding constraints faced by partners.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.