Presence Country
Special Report

Nigeria Market Monitoring Bulletin

October 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Nigeria continues to  face  one  of  its  worst  economic recessions  following  over  a  two-thirds  decline  in  oil revenues from September 2014 to July 2015. The reduction in foreign reserves has resulted in the persistent depreciation of the Naira (NGN) in heavily import-dependent Nigeria. The Interbank exchange rate was around 318.21 NGN/USD and the parallel (Bureau de Change) one reached closer to 400 NGN/USD in August, up from 203.76 and 289.78, respectively in January. And, that upward trend steadied following the Central Bank’s decision to allow the Naira to float in June. The national inflation rate stabilized at around 17% according to the National Bureau of Nigeria continues to face one of its worst economic recessions following over a two-thirds decline in oil revenues from September 2014 to July 2015. The reduction in foreign reserves has resulted in the persistent depreciation of the Naira (NGN) in heavily import-dependent Nigeria. The Interbank exchange rate was around 318.21 NGN/USD and the parallel (Bureau de Change) one reached closer to 400 NGN/USD in August, up from 203.76 and 289.78, respectively in January. And, that upward trend steadied following the Central Bank’s decision to allow the Naira to float in June. The national inflation rate stabilized at around 17% according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Prices of key imported commodities like rice continued to increase and remained well above average. 

  • Nigeria has a structural deficit in rice and wheat, and is among the greatest international importers of these two commodities. Between 2011 and 2015, Nigeria imported on average around 1.5 million MT of rice and 4.2 million MT of wheat, and valuing about $731.4 million and $1.3 billion, respectively. However, the lower Naira value and low purchasing power have considerably reduced the import volumes. Import cargo tonnages among Nigeria’s major ports have showed steady decline since 2014.

  • Elsewhere in the region, cereal prices (maize) were more stable. In Nigeria, in contrast, ongoing inflation in addition to the lean season pushed up prices of local coarse grains by around 20-50 percent this August compared to the previous month. The average year on year price increases were between 100 and 150%. Despite the slight increase in demand for Tabaski holiday, livestock prices remained below average in many areas of the region due to the reduction in Nigeria’s import demand.

  • Military operations to overcome the Boko-Haram insurgency continue to limit access and humanitarian activity to a large part of Northeast Nigeria. Despite governmental and humanitarian efforts and push for a return to more normal state, some key markets in Borno, Yobe, and Adamawa States are still disrupted with limited or no activity, not only due to insecurity but also poor road conditions. Nevertheless, there have been few improvements in the resumption of activities, such as around Ngala and Gubio (Borno State), and Michika (Adamawa State).

  • There are good 2016/2017 harvest prospects in Nigeria, due to a general normal rainy season pattern and the use of early maturing seeds. Thus, a marginal increase in crop performance is expected compared to last year at the national level. However, there was a late onset of the rainy season and early cessation of rain in some parts of the country, and dry spells in the North. First season harvests are completing in the Southern part of the country, and harvests of early crops are starting in the North. Markets supply will start to increase gradually as more harvests continue, and there could be an ease on the pressure on market purchase by poor households due to own consumption. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.