Supply and Market Outlook

West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook

December 2015

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.IPC phase classifications for concentrations of displaced people are included in Nigeria country maps.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
CILSS

ABOUT THIS REPORT

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) monitors trends in staple food supply and price trends in countries at risk of food insecurity. The Regional Supply and Market Outlook report provides a summary of regional staple food availability, surpluses and deficits during the current marketing year, projected price behavior, implications for local and regional commodity procurement, and essential market monitoring indicators. FEWS NET gratefully acknowledges partner organizations, national ministries of agriculture, national market information systems, regional organizations, and others for their assistance in providing the harvest estimates, commodity balance sheets, as well as trade and price data used in this report. 

Key Messages

  • Aggregate regional cereal production is expected to be above average in 2015/16, contributing to generally stable prices. Regional maize and rice production reached record high levels.

  • Areas experiencing below average production and atypical deficits include Chad and Ghana. Production in Northeastern Nigeria and eastern Niger (Diffa) are expected to be below average and market activities are expected to remain disrupted due to conflict in the greater Lake Chad area. This may result in atypical price trends in affected markets.

  • Imports from stable international markets will fill structural regional deficits of rice and wheat. Global commodity markets are expected to remain well supplied and prices stable despite the El Niño conditions.

  • In Ghana, poor macroeconomic conditions, below average cereal production, and well-above average domestic prices have resulted in below-average exports. Favorable production in other areas of the Central basin will likely offset any major impacts.

  • Regional institutional procurement is expected to take place at average levels. Local and regional procurement may be feasible particularly in Mali (millet and sorghum) and central and northwestern Nigeria (maize) and partially in North-west Ivory Coast.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.