Seasonal Monitor

Continued average to above-average rainfall is providing good growing conditions

August 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.IPC phase classifications for concentrations of displaced people are included in Nigeria country maps.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Key Messages

  • Total seasonal rainfall is average to above-average over the entire region and all agro-ecological zones (Figures 1 and 2).

  • Slight rainfall deficits are concentrated in certain areas of the bi-modal zone, southern Nigeria and isolated areas in the western Sahel (central Senegal and southwestern Mali); however, these deficits should not adversely affect crop development unless they persist.

  • The medium-term forecast for the next two weeks ( and ) calls for moderate to heavy rains over the entire region, an indication of continued favorable agricultural conditions. However, this rainfall forecast includes locust breeding areas in Mali and Niger, which could create favorable conditions for locust breeding.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Front’s (ITF) northward migration continues and during the third dekad of July, it is located north of its climatological position over Mauritania, Mali and Niger and at its climatological position over Chad (Figure 4).   This has brought average to above-average rainfall to all agro-ecological zones including the bi-modal zone and the western Sahel (northwestern Senegal and southwestern Mali) where deficits observed during the last few dekads have mostly been reversed.
  • Rainfall is currently subsiding in the bi-modal zone with the beginning of the period known as the “minor dry season,” which normally takes place in August.  Consequently, below-average rainfall conditions during this time period in the bi-modal zone are consistent with normal seasonal tendencies.
  • The above-average rainfall in the northern Sahel and Saharan zone has resulted in:
    • Favorable crop and pasture conditions
    • Earlier than normal planting in the northernmost part of the agricultural zone (Figure 3).
    • Suitable conditions for locust breeding

Forecasts

  • According to NOAA/CPC’s short and medium-term forecasts, rainfall will continue to progress northward, as its position is seasonally normal in its eastern segment and north of normal position in its western segment. This forecast calls for moderate to heavy rains throughout the region for the next two weeks (Aug 5-11 and Aug 12-18) with no expected dry spells.
  • For the next several three month periods (July-September, August-October, and September-November), seasonal forecasts from the major meteorological centers (IRI, ECMWF, NOAA-NCEP, UKMO) call for average to above-average rainfall over most of the Sahel from Chad to eastern Mali but below-average rainfall for the bi-modal zone and the western Sahel (Senegal, Mauritania).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.