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The Intertropical Front continues its northward migration over the region and is located slightly north of its climatological position, resulting in above-average rainfall over most of the region (Figures 1 and 4).
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The average to above-average rainfall recorded from late May to mid-June resulted in:
- An early start of the season (1-2 dekads) over most of the Sahelian zone (Figure 3)
- Adequate soil moisture and good crop conditions in the Bi-modal and Guinean-Sudanian zones
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Given the favorable medium-term forecasts, planting activities are expected to continue into the northern Sahelian zone.
- The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues moving northward bringing rainfall to much of the Sahelian zone and beyond during the first half of June. In the second dekad of June, it is located north of its climatological position over most of the region (Figure 4).
- In the Bi-modal and the Guinean-Sudanian zones, rainfall from late May to mid-June has been generally average to above-average with good temporal distribution, which is establishing favorable cropping conditions for the main agricultural season.
- Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) indicate that from late May to the third week of June, the majority of the region has received average to above-average rainfall (Figure 2). In the areas that have received below-average rainfall, deficits are mostly light and are not expected to adversely affect crop development.
- The western Sahel (northwestern Mali, southern Mauritania and Senegal) is the only area experiencing severe deficits. In this part of the region, however, the season has yet to start and the severe rain deficits are not expected to have a serious impact on future planting. Parts of southern Nigeria have experienced moderate rainfall deficits and should be closely monitored for any sign of improvement or persistent dryness.
- According to NOAA/CPC’s short and medium-term forecasts, rainfall will continue to progress northward, as is seasonally normal. This forecast calls for moderate to heavy rains throughout the region for the next two weeks (end of June and beginning of July) with no dry spells expected.
- For the next several three month periods (May-July, June-August and July-September), seasonal forecasts from major meteorological centers (IRI, ECMWF, NOAA-NCEP, UKMO) call for average to above-average rainfall over most of the Sahel from Chad to eastern Mali but below-average rainfall for the Bi-modal zone and the western Sahel (Senegal, Mauritania).
Figure 1
Figure 1: Total rainfall estimate (RFE) in mm, 1st dekad of April - 2nd dekad of June
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 2
Figure 2: Rainfall estimate (RFE) anomaly compared to the 2006-2015 mean, 2nddekad of April - 1st dekad of June
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 3
Figure 3: Start of Season (SOS) anomaly, 2nd dekad of June
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 4
Figure 4: Intertropical Front (ITF) position compared to climatological average in 2nd dekad of June
Source: USGS/FEWS NET
Figure 5
Seasonal Calendar in a Typical Year
Source: FEWS NET
FEWS NET’s Seasonal Monitor reports are produced for Central America and the Caribbean, West Africa, East Africa, Central Asia, and Somalia every 10-to-30 days during the region’s respective rainy season(s). Seasonal Monitors report updates on weather events (e.g., rainfall patterns) and associated impacts on ground conditions (e.g., cropping conditions, pasture and water availability), as well as the short-term rainfall forecast. Find more remote sensing information here.