Seasonal Monitor

Average to above-average rainfall continues to provide good growing conditions

June 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.IPC phase classifications for concentrations of displaced people are included in Nigeria country maps.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

Key Messages

  • The Intertropical Front continues its northward migration over the region and is located slightly north of its climatological position, resulting in above-average rainfall over most of the region (Figures 1 and 4).

  • The average to above-average rainfall recorded from late May to mid-June resulted in:

    • An early start of the season (1-2 dekads) over most of the Sahelian zone (Figure 3)
    • Adequate soil moisture and good crop conditions in the Bi-modal and Guinean-Sudanian zones
  • Given the favorable medium-term forecasts, planting activities are expected to continue into the northern Sahelian zone.

Update on Seasonal Progress

  • The Intertropical Front (ITF) continues moving northward bringing rainfall to much of the Sahelian zone and beyond during the first half of June.  In the second dekad of June, it is located north of its climatological position over most of the region (Figure 4).
  • In the Bi-modal and the Guinean-Sudanian zones, rainfall from late May to mid-June has been generally average to above-average with good temporal distribution, which is establishing favorable cropping conditions for the main agricultural season.
  • Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) indicate that from late May to the third week of June, the majority of the region has received average to above-average rainfall (Figure 2). In the areas that have received below-average rainfall, deficits are mostly light and are not expected to adversely affect crop development.
  • The western Sahel (northwestern Mali, southern Mauritania and Senegal) is the only area experiencing severe deficits.  In this part of the region, however, the season has yet to start and the severe rain deficits are not expected to have a serious impact on future planting.  Parts of southern Nigeria have experienced moderate rainfall deficits and should be closely monitored for any sign of improvement or persistent dryness.

Forecasts

  • According to NOAA/CPC’s short and medium-term forecasts, rainfall will continue to progress northward, as is seasonally normal. This forecast calls for moderate to heavy rains throughout the region for the next two weeks (end of June and beginning of July) with no dry spells expected.
  • For the next several three month periods (May-July, June-August and July-September), seasonal forecasts from major meteorological centers (IRI, ECMWF, NOAA-NCEP, UKMO) call for average to above-average rainfall over most of the Sahel from Chad to eastern Mali but below-average rainfall for the Bi-modal zone and the western Sahel (Senegal, Mauritania).

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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