Seasonal Monitor

Near average rainfall prevailed most of the season but localized deficits appeared in September

September 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Nigeria.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.IPC phase classifications for concentrations of displaced people are included in Nigeria country maps.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The total rainfall for the first 2 dekads of September (Figure 1 and Figure 2) has been below average over most of the region, with large portions in Niger, Chad, central-western Senegal, the Senegal/Mauritania border area, southwestern Burkina Faso, and northern Ghana affected by severe deficits.

  • Rainfall deficits are a concern for crop and pasture productivity shortfalls in areas that suffer long dry spells (over 8 days) during the first two dekads of September (Figure 3).

  • The ITF started its southward retreat in mid-August and is now at the northern limit of the Sahelian zone (Figure 4),which augurs the normal end of rains in the northern Sahelian zone in late September.

  • The medium-term forecast for the next two weeks (September 23rd– October 7th) calls for dry conditions in the Sahelian zone by early October and moderate to heavy rains south of it.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

  • The Intertropical Front’s (ITF) has reached its northernmost position in early August and started its southward retreat around mid-August.  It is now positioned at the northern limit of the Sahelian zone at its climatological position over most of the region except in western Mauritania where it is slightly south of it and in eastern Niger and Chad where it is 1-2 degrees north of it (Figure 3).   This indicates the end of the dry season in the northern part of the Sahelian zone is nearing as confirmed by the medium term forecast for the next couple of weeks (Sept 23 - Oct 7).
  • The “minor dry season” in the bi-modal zone has ended in late August but rainfall has remained below average.  However, based on the medium term forecast moderate to heavy rainfall is expected over the area in the next couple of weeks, which will bring the needed relief for the minor season crops.
  • For the other agro-climatological zones north of the bi-modal zone rainfall was generally above average until the end of August.  The few areas that with below average rainfall only experienced light deficits and benefited from a nice time distribution of rainfall resulting into favorable conditions for crops and pastures.  During the first two dekads of September, however, some areas in the Sahelian zone have experienced severe deficits coupled with a bad rainfall time distribution with dry spells exceeding 8 days.  The impact on crops and pastures is expected to be significantly important, particularly during the reproductive phenological phase (from mid-August to mid-September).  These areas include southeastern Niger (south of Diffa region), central Niger (north of Maradi region) and southwestern Mauritania (southern Trarza and Brakna regions).
  • Based on the FAO desert locust update in early September the situation is expected to remain calm for the rest of the season; despite good rainfall and favorable ecological conditions observed during the last couple of months over the breeding area extending from Mauritania to Chad only small scale breeding is expected.

FORECASTS

  • The short and medium-term NOAA/CPC’s forecasts call for moderate to heavy rains over the bi-modal and Sudanian-Guinean zones and southwestern Mali, Senegal and Mauritania during the first week (23-30 Sep).  For the second week (1-7 Oct), however, rainfall activities will only concern the Guinean-Sudanian and bi-modal while the Sahelian zone will remain completely dry.  This is indicative of the installation of the dry season over the Sahelian zone by early October.
  • The October seasonal forecast from the NOAA-NCEP calls for climatology over the region.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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