Supply and Market Outlook

West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook Update

April 2017

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.IPC phase classifications for concentrations of displaced people are included in Nigeria country maps.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
WFP
CILSS

This report provides a summary of changes to regional cereal availability estimates and markets across West Africa. It updates FEWS NET’s Regional Supply and Market Outlook Report published in December 2016 and follows the recently concluded joint CILSS/WFP/FEWS NET/FAO market assessments that took place across the region in February and early March. Furthermore, this report reflects the most up to date production estimates presented during the March 2017 PREGEC meeting.

Key Messages

  • Between Feb 7 and March 18, a series of joint market assessments were conducted across West Africa. These annual assessments were carried out under CILSS leadership, with active participation by FEWS NET, WFP, FAO, national Ministries of Agriculture and Market Information Systems. The findings from these assessments are key inputs to this report, which provides an update to the assumptions and analysis outlined in the West Africa Regional Supply and Market Outlook report published in December 2016. Some of the results were also presented at the March 2017 PREGEC meeting

  • At the regional level, production is above-average, driven by a third consecutive year of favorable production conditions in key surplus-producing areas and a large supply response in Nigeria to favorable production and marketing conditions (high prices and government support programs). There are nevertheless localized instances of below-average production within Niger, Mali, and Burkina Faso (due to erratic rainfall) and northeastern Nigeria (due to protracted conflict and displacement).

  • As anticipated in December, major market anomalies in the region are driven by the direct and indirect impacts of macroeconomic shocks and conflict and are mostly concentrated in or emanating from dynamics in the eastern basin. National-level anomalies in Nigeria and Chad are both linked to low oil export revenues, which have reduced government and private sector spending and access to foreign reserves for essential imports. Demand in both countries is down due to lower purchasing power. 

  • In the Eastern Basin, the ongoing market disruptions in the northeast or Nigeria are driven by the protracted conflict (and related displacement). Nationally, macroeconomic conditions have resulted in relatively high local nominal prices, while export parity prices are relatively low. These trends are expected to persist in the short to medium term. In areas of Niger bordering Nigeria, prices have increased compared to 2016 due to local deficits and supply disruptions around Maradi and Zinder. This has led to increased reliance on imports from Nigeria at this point in the marketing year (usually this demand is stronger during the lean season) and higher prices in these key markets. In Chad, market activities are expected to remain below average, resulting in lower food prices. 

  • In the Central Basin market supplies are adequate, but trader restocking is at below average levels due to good household stocks.  Households and traders are retaining stocks in anticipation of higher prices later in the year. By and large in the basin, prices are stable or below average, except in Ghana. Trade flows are below average for this time of year due to (1) adequate grain supply in importing countries and (2) reduced livestock demand from Nigeria (there are even instances of trade flow reversals, with Nigerian livestock traded in Burkina Faso and Ghana, which is atypical).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.