Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram conflict continues to contribute to large-scale population displacement, limit market activity, and restrict normal livelihoods.

Current Observations

Elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) on-going in inaccessible areas of Borno State. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persists in many accessible LGAs.

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Though data is limited, food security and nutrition data from the governorate of Al Hudaydah suggest a recent deterioration in outcomes to Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Recent nutrition surveys conducted during the harvest show GAM prevalences remain at Serious levels (GAM > 10 percent).

Reason for Concern

The October to December Deyr season failed. This follows below-average April to June Gu rainfall. A below-average 2017 Gu is forecast.

Current Observations

Deyr production estimated at 60-70 percent below average. Staple food prices have atypically increased. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are possible in early 2017.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Due to the 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought across much of the region, the regional maize deficit is estimated to be just over 5 million MT.

Current Observations

Limited seed availability and access for poor households could impact area planted for the 2016/17 season. Some drought-affected areas may face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes as the peak of the lean season progresses.

Reason for Concern

Hurricane Matthew directly struck southwestern Haiti in early October, significantly damaging crops and infrastructure while disrupting livelihood activities.

Current Observations

Urgent humanitarian and agricultural assistance is needed to mitigate food consumption gaps and ensure the successful launch of winter and spring agricultural activities.

Reason for Concern

Conflict and weak non-agricultural labor markets are inhibiting normal livelihoods and market access for many.

Current Observations

Conflict displaced approximately 600,000 people in 2016, and an estimated 670,000 undocumented Afghanistan nationals returned to the country from Pakistan.

Reason for Concern

2015/16 crop production in southern Madagascar was well below-average or failed, depending on the area, due to the effects of a severe El Niño-related drought.

Current Observations

Assistance in the south is playing important role. Many drought-affected areas of the south are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through the remainder of lean season.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Nigeria

Boko Haram conflict continues to contribute to large-scale population displacement, limit market activity, and restrict normal livelihoods.

Elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) on-going in inaccessible areas of Borno State. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) persists in many accessible LGAs.

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Though data is limited, food security and nutrition data from the governorate of Al Hudaydah suggest a recent deterioration in outcomes to Emergency (IPC Phase 4).

South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Recent nutrition surveys conducted during the harvest show GAM prevalences remain at Serious levels (GAM > 10 percent).

Somalia

The October to December Deyr season failed. This follows below-average April to June Gu rainfall. A below-average 2017 Gu is forecast.

Deyr production estimated at 60-70 percent below average. Staple food prices have atypically increased. Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are possible in early 2017.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Southern Africa

Due to the 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought across much of the region, the regional maize deficit is estimated to be just over 5 million MT.

Limited seed availability and access for poor households could impact area planted for the 2016/17 season. Some drought-affected areas may face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes as the peak of the lean season progresses.

Haiti

Hurricane Matthew directly struck southwestern Haiti in early October, significantly damaging crops and infrastructure while disrupting livelihood activities.

Urgent humanitarian and agricultural assistance is needed to mitigate food consumption gaps and ensure the successful launch of winter and spring agricultural activities.

Afghanistan

Conflict and weak non-agricultural labor markets are inhibiting normal livelihoods and market access for many.

Conflict displaced approximately 600,000 people in 2016, and an estimated 670,000 undocumented Afghanistan nationals returned to the country from Pakistan.

Madagascar

2015/16 crop production in southern Madagascar was well below-average or failed, depending on the area, due to the effects of a severe El Niño-related drought.

Assistance in the south is playing important role. Many drought-affected areas of the south are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) through the remainder of lean season.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.