Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Famine (IPC Phase 5) was likely occurring in Leer, possibly occurring in Koch, and that humanitarian assistance is preventing Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Mayendit.

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram conflict continues to contribute to large-scale population displacement, limit market activity, and restrict normal livelihoods.

Current Observations

Available information suggests, large parts of the northeast that remain in accessible to humanitarian actors continue to face an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

Recent food import data suggest that imports at the key port in Al Hudaydah have recently declined sharply. Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible in a worst-case scenario in 2017.

Reason for Concern

The October to December Deyr season failed. This follows below-average April to June Gu rainfall. A below-average 2017 Gu is forecast.

Current Observations

The scarcity of safe drinking water has led to an outbreak of AWD/cholera. According to WHO, there have been 10,571 cases reported and 269 deaths since January 2017. Nearly half of all cases were reported in Bay.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Due to the 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought across much of the region, the regional maize deficit is estimated to be just over 5 million MT.

Current Observations

Heavy rainfall continues, along with increased cyclonic activity. The Fall armyworm has been confirmed in more countries, but its impact on production is uncertain due to the limited monitoring capacity.

Reason for Concern

Hurricane Matthew directly struck southwestern Haiti in early October, significantly damaging crops and infrastructure while disrupting livelihood activities.

Current Observations

Areas of southwestern Haiti worst affected by Hurricane Matthew are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least June 2017 in the absence of humanitarian assistance, as poor households continue to face difficulty meeting their basic food needs.

Reason for Concern

Conflict and weak non-agricultural labor markets are inhibiting normal livelihoods and market access for many.

Current Observations

Although most basins have above-average snow accumulation as of mid-March, precipitation was below-average during the beginning of the rainfed planting season.

Reason for Concern

2015/16 crop production in southern Madagascar was well below-average or failed, depending on the area, due to the effects of a severe El Niño-related drought.

Current Observations

Due to losses of subsistence crops and household food supplies from cyclone-related flooding, food prices in local markets are increasing. Food availability will continue to be difficult in some remote areas cut off by damaged roads.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Famine (IPC Phase 5) was likely occurring in Leer, possibly occurring in Koch, and that humanitarian assistance is preventing Famine (IPC Phase 5) in Mayendit.

Nigeria

Boko Haram conflict continues to contribute to large-scale population displacement, limit market activity, and restrict normal livelihoods.

Available information suggests, large parts of the northeast that remain in accessible to humanitarian actors continue to face an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Recent food import data suggest that imports at the key port in Al Hudaydah have recently declined sharply. Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible in a worst-case scenario in 2017.

Somalia

The October to December Deyr season failed. This follows below-average April to June Gu rainfall. A below-average 2017 Gu is forecast.

The scarcity of safe drinking water has led to an outbreak of AWD/cholera. According to WHO, there have been 10,571 cases reported and 269 deaths since January 2017. Nearly half of all cases were reported in Bay.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Southern Africa

Due to the 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought across much of the region, the regional maize deficit is estimated to be just over 5 million MT.

Heavy rainfall continues, along with increased cyclonic activity. The Fall armyworm has been confirmed in more countries, but its impact on production is uncertain due to the limited monitoring capacity.

Haiti

Hurricane Matthew directly struck southwestern Haiti in early October, significantly damaging crops and infrastructure while disrupting livelihood activities.

Areas of southwestern Haiti worst affected by Hurricane Matthew are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through at least June 2017 in the absence of humanitarian assistance, as poor households continue to face difficulty meeting their basic food needs.

Afghanistan

Conflict and weak non-agricultural labor markets are inhibiting normal livelihoods and market access for many.

Although most basins have above-average snow accumulation as of mid-March, precipitation was below-average during the beginning of the rainfed planting season.

Madagascar

2015/16 crop production in southern Madagascar was well below-average or failed, depending on the area, due to the effects of a severe El Niño-related drought.

Due to losses of subsistence crops and household food supplies from cyclone-related flooding, food prices in local markets are increasing. Food availability will continue to be difficult in some remote areas cut off by damaged roads.

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.