Areas of Highest Concern

Reason for Concern

Boko Haram conflict continues to contribute to large-scale population displacement, limit market activity, and restrict normal livelihoods.

Current Observations

Despite improved humanitarian access in some areas, large parts of the northeast that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors continue to face an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

Reason for Concern

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

Current Observations

In addition to the impact of conflict on household livelihoods, markets, and humanitarian access, the deteriorating macroeconomic situation is affecting the private sector’s ability to import food.

Reason for Concern

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Current Observations

Further deterioration in food security is likely during an extended lean season (February-July), as widespread insecurity continues to limit livelihoods, disrupt trade, and block humanitarian access.

Reason for Concern

The October to December Deyr season failed. This follows below-average April to June Gu rainfall. A below-average 2017 Gu is forecast.

Current Observations

Food security is expected to further deteriorate over the coming months, and improvements in early summer 2017 depend highly on the 2017 Gu.

Other Areas of Concern

Reason for Concern

Due to the 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought across much of the region, the regional maize deficit is estimated to be just over 5 million MT.

Current Observations

Heavy rainfall since late December has resulted in localized floods in several areas. Risk remains high for additional floods in central and eastern sectors.

Reason for Concern

Hurricane Matthew directly struck southwestern Haiti in early October, significantly damaging crops and infrastructure while disrupting livelihood activities.

Current Observations

Food assistance needs remain particularly high in Grand’Anse and Sud departments. Agricultural assistance needed to ensure success of the main Printemps 2017 agricultural season.

Reason for Concern

Conflict and weak non-agricultural labor markets are inhibiting normal livelihoods and market access for many.

Current Observations

Heavy snowfall in February alleviated concerns of availability of snowmelt for 2017 irrigated crops, but also led to road blockages and an unknown number of deaths.

Reason for Concern

2015/16 crop production in southern Madagascar was well below-average or failed, depending on the area, due to the effects of a severe El Niño-related drought.

Current Observations

Assistance in the south is playing an important role in mitigating food consumption gaps. Current rainfall deficits in eastern Madagascar are expected to impact rice production.

Areas of Highest Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Nigeria

Boko Haram conflict continues to contribute to large-scale population displacement, limit market activity, and restrict normal livelihoods.

Despite improved humanitarian access in some areas, large parts of the northeast that remain inaccessible to humanitarian actors continue to face an elevated risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5).

Yemen

The extensive conflict has reduced incomes, and food prices remain elevated. Food access is inadequate for many poor households.

In addition to the impact of conflict on household livelihoods, markets, and humanitarian access, the deteriorating macroeconomic situation is affecting the private sector’s ability to import food.

South Sudan

Conflict has severely disrupted trade, humanitarian access, and livelihoods. Very poor macroeconomic conditions constrain household market access.

Further deterioration in food security is likely during an extended lean season (February-July), as widespread insecurity continues to limit livelihoods, disrupt trade, and block humanitarian access.

Somalia

The October to December Deyr season failed. This follows below-average April to June Gu rainfall. A below-average 2017 Gu is forecast.

Food security is expected to further deteriorate over the coming months, and improvements in early summer 2017 depend highly on the 2017 Gu.

Other Areas of Concern

Country or Region Reason for Concern Current Observations
Southern Africa

Due to the 2015/16 El Niño-induced drought across much of the region, the regional maize deficit is estimated to be just over 5 million MT.

Heavy rainfall since late December has resulted in localized floods in several areas. Risk remains high for additional floods in central and eastern sectors.

Haiti

Hurricane Matthew directly struck southwestern Haiti in early October, significantly damaging crops and infrastructure while disrupting livelihood activities.

Food assistance needs remain particularly high in Grand’Anse and Sud departments. Agricultural assistance needed to ensure success of the main Printemps 2017 agricultural season.

Afghanistan

Conflict and weak non-agricultural labor markets are inhibiting normal livelihoods and market access for many.

Heavy snowfall in February alleviated concerns of availability of snowmelt for 2017 irrigated crops, but also led to road blockages and an unknown number of deaths.

Madagascar

2015/16 crop production in southern Madagascar was well below-average or failed, depending on the area, due to the effects of a severe El Niño-related drought.

Assistance in the south is playing an important role in mitigating food consumption gaps. Current rainfall deficits in eastern Madagascar are expected to impact rice production.

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About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 35 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.