Markets & Trade
Regional Supply and Market Outlook Reports
Central America | April 2017
West Africa | April 2017
East Africa | March 2017
Key Messages from the July 2017 Global Price Watch (reporting on June 2017 prices):
- In West Africa, regional staple food production during the 2016/17 marketing year was well above average. International rice and wheat imports continue to support market supplies. Prices continued to increase seasonally in many areas with the progression of the lean season. Current market anomalies remain concentrated in the eastern marketing basin, including but not limited to: conflict-related market disruptions in the Lake Chad basin, localized above-average grain deficits in Niger, trade disruptions related to the depreciation of the Naira and various government measures.
- In East Africa, staple food supplies remain tight and prices well above-average in South Sudan, Somalia, and Yemen. Markets remain severely disrupted by insecurity in Yemen and South Sudan. Import capacity in Yemen is uncertain, and food availability will likely remain constrained in the coming months. Uganda, Kenya, Tanzania, and Ethiopia are also facing below-average staple food supply and above-average prices following recent or ahead of forthcoming poor harvests.
- In Southern Africa, maize availability is average to above average following recent regional harvests. Regional maize production prospects for the current season are good with record-high harvests anticipated in South Africa. Maize prices continued to decline in most countries in June and are below their respective 2016 levels in many areas. Maize grain is generally able to circulate between surplus and deficit areas without major trade restrictions. The exception to these trends is in Tanzania, where measures are currently in place to limit exports and prices remain above average.
- In Central America, staple food availability continued to decline following the end of the Postrera harvest and Apante harvest. Maize and bean prices were generally seasonally stable across the region, with varied trends compared to average levels. In Haiti, local maize and bean prices eased with progression of the Printemps harvests. Imported rice prices were stable while the Haitian gourde experienced a marginal depreciation against the USD.
- Central Asia sustained adequate supplies. Wheat prices in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan, and Afghanistan remained stable, but declined slightly in Pakistan with the arrival of the new harvest. Forecasts estimate that wheat harvests in Afghanistan, Kazakhstan and Pakistan will be slightly lower than in previous years. Intraregional trade is expected to fill staples’ deficits in importing countries.
- International staple food markets remain well supplied. Maize prices fell while rice, wheat and soybean prices increased. Crude oil prices fell and remain well below average.
Markets & Trade Products
About Price Watch
Price Watch offers a monthly summary and outlook on global, regional and national trends of key commodity prices in FEWS NET countries. Analysis may touch on global issues, such as fuel prices or exchange rates, if they are likely to influence staple food prices in FEWS NET countries. The accompanying Price Watch Annex details price trends by country.
About Price Bulletin
Price Bulletins are produced monthly and available by country. They provide graphs tracking the prices of commodities that are important locally.
Cross Border Trade Reports
About Cross Border Trade Reports
Cross Border Trade Reports are periodic documents on trade from country to country or in a region, usually addressing the exchange of food commodities at selected border points.
Production and Market Flow Maps
About Production and Trade Flow Maps
Production and Trade Flow Maps capture the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns. These maps are available for key products in most FEWS NET countries.
- Import/Export Parity Price Analysis
- Structure-Conduct-Performance and Food Security
- Adjusting Prices for Inflation and Creating Price Indices
- Commodity Market Maps and Price Bulletins: Tools for Food Security Analysis and Reporting
- Terms of Trade and Food Security Analysis
- Markets, Food Security and Early Warning Reporting
About Market & Trade
Across the developing world today, huge majorities of poor people—both urban and rural—rely on markets for staple foods.
Even small holders who produce their own food may rely on markets to add diversity to their diets or to supplement their stocks during lean periods. They may also count on markets to sell crops, trade assets such as livestock, or find casual labor opportunities. The trade flows that support these markets are powerful forces, influenced by suppliers, traders, and buyers responding to changes in supply and demand, ultimately determining prices and the availability of food.
FEWS NET conducts regular analysis of markets and trade, monitoring local staple food prices and regional trade flows as well as macroeconomic drivers. This work centers on countries where we conduct regular food security analysis, as well as selected others, such as South Africa and Kazakhstan, whose markets greatly influence those of their neighbors. For each country, FEWS NET specialists consider products of local importance, looking at major production and consumption markets. Monthly reports, known for their objectivity and accessibility, are published on this website and distributed by subscriber list.
In addition, our market specialists collaborate with food security analysts to integrate assumptions on trade flows and prices into FEWS NET’s monthly early warning analysis. As warranted, the team conducts more extensive price projections using fundamentals analysis of market drivers and technical analysis of historical price data.
FEWS NET cooperates closely with a network of food, agricultural and economic entities, relying on them for expertise as well as data on prices and other economic indicators. They include: national ministries of agriculture, statistical offices and market information systems; the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO); the World Food Program (WFP); and others. In a handful of countries, FEWS NET has teams of market monitors who collect data.
Along with the regular reporting, FEWS NET also offers a series of clear, concise guidance documents to explain the basics of markets and trade analysis, assessment, and monitoring.