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Rainfall defecits, fall armyworm infestations, and conflicts disrupt the growing season

  • Food Security Outlook
  • Democratic Republic of Congo
  • June 2017
Rainfall defecits, fall armyworm infestations, and conflicts disrupt the growing season

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  • Key Messages
  • NATIONAL OVERVIEW
  • EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK
  • Key Messages
    • The crisis conditions in central Kasaï, which has been declared a military operations zone; displacing close to 20 percent of the rural population, disrupting basic social services and the flow of supplies to certain markets, and driving crop production levels for the 2017 “B” growing season below-average will have a major impact on access to household livelihoods during the outlook period, causing poor households to resort to the use of increasingly harmful survival strategies.

    • The reported rainfall deficits in certain territories in Ituri, North-Kivu, South-Kivu, and Tanganyika disrupted the growing cycle of maize, bean, and potato crops sensitive to water stress. 

    • Damage caused by fall armyworms in the Southeast (Haut-Katanga, Lualaba, and Lomami) and the reportedly late start of the rains in these areas, maize harvests for the 2016-2017 “A” growing season got off to a later than usual start (in June 2017). The official resumption of maize exports by Zambia should ensure a certain measure of food availability in these areas, which could help stabilize trade flows on local markets between June and September 2017.

    • Bird flu outbreaks in three territories in Ituri province, which, in the space of two months, has already killed closed to 21,594 ducks, 1,514 chickens, and 312 pigeons, is spreading. The number of outbreak areas jumped from 14 to 16 between the end of May and the middle of June 2017. Without mitigating measures, the control measures implemented by provincial authorities could affect the incomes of households dependent on poultry-raising activities


    NATIONAL OVERVIEW

     

    Current situation

    Farming conditions

    • In the southeastern part of the country (Haut-Katanga, Lualaba, and Lomami) with a single growing season, the maize harvest, which normally begins sometime between March and April, got underway in April and extended through the end of June 2017 due to the late start of the rains, which delayed crop planting activities normally beginning in October until the end of November and the beginning of December 2016. In spite of the infestation of maize crops by fall armyworms « Spodoptera frugiperda » and the resulting shortfall in local crop production, poor households will be able to amass approximately two months’ worth of food stocks, thereby improving their food consumption.
    • In the northeastern part of the country, (former Orientale province, Maniema, North-Kivu, and South-Kivu), the “B” growing season currently underway is making steady progress, producing harvests of certain green crops such as beans and maize. However, the below-normal levels of rainfall in several parts of certain territories in these provinces between March and May 2017 wilted or impeded the growth of certain food crops such as beans, maize, potatoes, and rice, which could put the size of harvests below the average for a normal year. The territories affected by these rainfall deficits are Uvira, Fizi, Idjwi, and Kalehe in South-Kivu; Rutshuru, Beni, and Lubero in North-Kivu; Irumu, Djugu, and Mambasa in Ituri; and Kibombo, Kailo, Kasongo, and Kabambare in Maniema.
    • In former Kasaï and Tanganyika provinces, the armed fighting in these areas was responsible for the limited farming activities for the 2017 “B” growing season, with close to 20 percent of the rural population displaced by the conflict and related acts of violence. The harvest for the 2017 “B” growing season (in June and July) will be well below-average and will prevent poor households from having adequate food stocks.
    • In addition, the 2017 “B” growing season was marred by a number of shocks caused by crop predators and diseases and, in particular, by the infestation of fall armyworms (Spodoptera frugiperda) in nearly all territories in the eastern part of the country with the exception of Ituri, where the new variegated grasshopper infestation in Aru province is steadily decimating cassava, maize, coffee, bean, and other crops  (which has been steadily spreading, causing increasingly wide-spread damage to crops in territories not yet affected during the 2017 “B” growing season and, thereby, contributing to the shortfall in maize production).

    Crop diseases such as African cassava mosaic disease, cassava brown streak disease, and banana Xanthomonas wilt are also continuing to affect crop production due to the inefficacy of certain disease control measures.

    Pastoral conditions

    • There are ongoing livestock-raising activities for large and small animals, with a steady decline in the supply of pasture in South-Kivu, North-Kivu, Tanganyika, Haut-Katanga, and Ituri provinces in the wake of the climatic anomalies during the 2016-2017 “A” growing season. The rainfall deficits reported in certain territories during the 2017 “B” growing season (between February and June) only served to further aggravate the lack of good pasture availability from the previous season.

    The herd movements by transhumant livestock normally beginning during the dry season (in June-July), after the harvest, have started up ahead of schedule. At certain times during the course of these transhumant herd movements prior to the regular harvest, cows are being led to graze in the fields of farming households, reviving latent disputes between farmers and pastoralists. The lack of rain is responsible for the shortage of pasture, which has negatively affected milk production and the weight of livestock.

    • The raging bird flu outbreak in Mahagi, Irumu, and Djugu territories in Ituri province is decimating poultry flocks (ducks, chickens, and pigeons), with mortality rates at between 60 and 80 percent. As of June 13, 2017, it had already killed 1,514 chickens, 21,594 ducks, and 312 pigeons. The number of outbreak areas jumped from 14 to 16 between May 23, 2017 and June 13, 2017. These poultry flocks are capital assets and sources of income for poor households. Thus, their decimation is reducing their incomes and preventing them from engaging in certain types of nonfood spending on items such as school fees and health care without resorting to unsound survival strategies.
    • The outbreak of hog cholera and Newcastle disease affecting an estimated 25 to 50 percent of the hog and bird population in Ubundu territory in Tshopo province since January 2017 according to the CAID (the Development Indicators Analysis Unit) and the Territorial Inspection Service for Farming, Fishing, and Livestock-Raising Activities (Inspection Territoriale de l’Agriculture, Pêche et Elevage) is continuing to hamper these livestock-raising activities in this area due to the lack of a response plan.

    Market situation

    •  In spite of the mostly below-average harvests of crops such as maize, beans, sweet potatoes, and potatoes during the ongoing harvesting period in eastern and southeastern areas of the country, they will maintain food availability for the next two months (June and July), stabilizing crop prices to some extent compared with last month, though price levels are still up from the same time last year due to the steady depreciation in the value of the Congolese franc against the U.S. dollar (by more than 52 percent in one year).
    • The reported price stability compared with last month is attributable to the flow of cross-border trade fueled by the official authorization of Zambian exports of staple foodstuffs such as maize and the informal imports of rice and maize from Tanzania through various border areas such as Uvira and Fizi in South-Kivu and Kalemie in Tanganyika. In addition, many households in the southeastern part of the country (in Haut-Katanga, Haut-Lomami, and Lualaba provinces), where there had been late harvests for growing season A, have moved on to the main harvest since April. These harvests for the 2017 “B” growing season were still underway in June and expanding into other parts of the country (North-Kivu, South-Kivu, Maniema, Ituri, Tshopo, Bas-Uélé, and Haut-Uélé), creating a certain measure of food availability on local markets and, thus, limiting the replacement of certain food crops like cassava with maize and vice-versa, depending on the eating habits in each area.

    Security situation and population movements 

    • The security situation remains unstable and volatile, particularly in conflict areas in the country’s Eastern and Central regions in the throes of a protracted crisis situation. Clashes between armed groups and tribal conflicts have triggered large-scale internal population movements. The central part of the country, particularly Kasaï, in which security conditions had stabilized to some extent, has been plagued by a new outbreak of fighting and violence since August of last year, displacing massive numbers of people, including more than 1.3 million internally displaced persons and over 30,000 refugees in Angola.
    •  The fighting between local militia groups and security forces in provinces in the greater Kasaï area in the first quarter of 2017 swelled the ranks of the internally displaced population in the DRC by more than 1.5 million or nearly 68.18 percent, from close to 2.2 million in December 2016 to 3.7 million as of March 2017. Central Kasaï province alone, where the fighting in that area first began, has more than 670,000 IDPs, making it the province with the second largest number of IDPs after North-Kivu.
    • In addition, with the political instability in neighboring countries, there is a steady influx of new refugees into the DRC from South Sudan, Burundi, and the Central African Republic. According to the U.N. Refugee Agency, the number of refugees in the DRC has risen from 451,956 to 467, 473 or by 3.43 percent since December 31, 2016.

    Humanitarian assistance

    • U.N. agencies such as the WFP, the FAO, UNICEF, and the UNHCR and national and international NGOs are partnering with the government to provide humanitarian assistance. This assistance is largely concentrated in the central and eastern reaches of the country plagued by continuing armed conflicts and tribal fighting with a large IDP and refugee presence. The Humanitarian Coordinator has already allocated a total of US$ 16.8 million since the beginning of 2017 through the DRC Humanitarian (Pooled) Fund. The main goals of these allocations are to improve living conditions for households affected by the food and nutrition crisis in Punia territory in Maniema province and provide multi-sectoral emergency assistance to populations affected by the conflict in Kalemie territory in Tanganyika province and Kasaï and Central Kasaï provinces.  

    Assumptions

    The most likely scenario for the period from June 2017 through January 2018 is based on the following assumptions with respect to nationwide conditions:

    Crop production

    • Rainfall: The expected average levels of rainfall during the 2017-2018 “A” growing season will enable households to engage in normal seasonal farming activities, except in certain parts of North-Kivu (Rutshuru, Beni, and Lubero) where the outlook is for below-average rainfall activity.
    • Growing season A: With the fall armyworm « Spodoptera frugiperda » infestation of maize crops during the 2016-2017 “A” growing season extending into the 2017 “B” growing season and spreading to even more areas, without the design and implementation of an effective response plan at the country-wide level, the 2017-2018 “A” growing season scheduled to begin in September will most likely be marred by an even more severe armyworm infestation.
    • Growing season C: Maize, bean, rice, and vegetable crops in marshland areas and irrigation schemes will continue to make normal progress between June and July. They are expected to produce normal harvests between October and November 2017. 
    •  Lean season: The smaller than average harvest for growing season B in several territories in the eastern part of the country will provide households with food stocks for one to two months after the harvest. Thus, it is highly likely that the lean season normally starting up in October will get underway earlier than usual, or by August or September 2017, which may cause poor households to resort to increasingly harmful survival strategies.
    • Crop diseases: Based on the repeated outbreaks of crop diseases due to the continued use of seeds from infected plants by farming households for the planting of new crops, banana Xanthomonas wilt and cassava brown streak disease will likely continue to affect yields of these crops and will have more of an impact than in the last crop year. 
    • Crop predators: With the steady spread of the fall armyworm « Spodoptera frugiperda » infestation of maize crops beginning in October 2016 in South-Ubangi, Haut-Katanga, and Lualaba provinces throughout the 2017 “B” growing season to more than half the country’s provinces, it is highly likely that it will eventually strike all the country’s provinces, causing major crop losses for the upcoming 2017-2018 “A” growing season for lack of an effective response plan against this crop predator.

    Based on the continued destruction of different types of crops by variegated grasshoppers in Aru territory in Ituri and the lack of a response plan since 2016 and with its spread to other territories in Ituri province, it is highly likely that this pest will gain new ground during the “A” growing season, affecting yields of major crops such as cassava, maize, rice, etc.

    • Diseases of poultry: Given the limited physical capacity of the Ituri Provincial Agricultural Inspection Service to implement its treatment plan against the raging bird flu outbreak in that area since April 2017 and the jump in the number of outbreak areas from 14 to 16 between the month of May and June 13, 2017, it is highly likely that the disease will continue to spread to other territories in that province and decimate even more poultry flocks than it has thus far, affecting larger numbers of households and reducing the incomes of poor households dependent on poultry-raising activities.

    Markets

    • Operation of markets: With the main harvest season currently underway in the southeastern part of the country and the lifting of the ban on maize exports by Zambia, it is only normal that there will be an improvement in food availability on major markets in Lubumbashi, Kolwezi, and Likasi compared with the last six-month period, which will stabilize prices compared with last quarter, though price levels will still be higher than they were at the same time last year and above the five-year average.
    • Cross-border trade: In spite of the restrictions on rice and maize exports by Burundi and Tanzania to the DRC on which South-Kivu and Tanganyika provinces are dependent for more than 30 percent of their supplies of these crops, the ongoing harvests for growing season B could help ensure a certain measure of food availability on local markets and the continued smooth operation of markets in these areas, even with the expected below-average size of these harvests and the violence sparked by the tribal disputes and armed conflicts in these provinces.
    • Market supplies: The expected larger than usual maize imports from Zambia with the lifting of the restrictions on maize exports by that country and the ongoing harvests for the 2017 “B” growing season in many parts of the country will likely stabilize market networks in areas unaffected by population movements.
    • Value of the national currency:  With the measures taken by the central government to control monetary inflation, which failed to produce good results, and the economic sanctions and threats by the country’s major financial partners (the European Union, the international community, the World Bank, the IMF, etc.) putting pressure on the government, it is highly likely that the value of the Congolese franc will continue to steadily depreciate throughout the first half of the outlook period, possibly reaching an historic low by the end of the second half of the outlook period.
    • Food prices: In spite of the below-average harvests for growing season B in many territories in the eastern part of the country, there should be a certain measure of food availability on markets in the Southeast and the Northeast in the first half of the outlook period (between June and September 2017), which would stabilize food prices to some extent compared with the last quarter, with prices trending upwards in the second half of the outlook period (between October 2017 and January 2018), driven by the steady depreciation in the value of the Congolese franc.
    • Infrastructure: In spite of the damage to road infrastructure from the normal rainfall activity during the 2016-2017 “A” growing season, driving up the cost of food shipments from rural crop-producing areas, in all probability, these roadways will reopen to a normal flow of traffic by June 2017, which marks the end of the rainy season and the beginning of the dry season, and remain open during the second half of the outlook period. The result would be a larger number of carriers serving crop-producing areas, bringing down the cost of food shipments.

    Other key issues

    • Political situation: With the failure by the major political groups to reach a compromise with respect to the implementation of the agreement on the country’s transition process calling for the holding of presidential and national and provincial legislative elections before the end of 2017, the exclusion of an extremely influential political class from the transition process, the delay in the effective implementation of specific arrangements under the agreement, and the limited government funding for voter registration activities will cause the elections to be postponed, triggering mass protests resulting in an escalation in the country’s political crisis and more severe disruptions to livelihoods.  
    • Security situation: The continuing armed conflicts and ethnic and tribal fighting in different provinces across the country (both former Kasaï provinces, North-Kivu, South-Kivu, Tanganyika, Maniema, and Ituri) and ongoing military operations in these areas, together with the mass escapes by several thousand prisoners from the Makala prison in Kinshasa, the Kasangulu prison in Kongo-Central, and the Beni prison in North-Kivu, will more than likely continue to trigger different types of security incidents such as abductions, burglaries, murders, looting, etc. in all parts of the country throughout the outlook period, disrupting the livelihoods of civilian populations.
    • Population movements: Based on statistics compiled by the UNOCHA in the DRC  for the first quarter of 2017 showing  1.5 million more IDPs in March 2017 compared with December 2016, or a 68 percent increase in the size of the displaced population in a three-month period, and UNHCR statistics showing a three percent increase in the number of refugees in the DRC from certain neighboring countries (Burundi, the CAR, and South Sudan) which will continue to be plagued by political instability throughout the same period and given the future uncertainty created by the presence of armed groups, the continued ethnic fighting, and the ongoing military operations by the official army in the country’s eastern and central provinces (North-Kivu, Tanganyika, South-Kivu, Haut-Katanga, Maniema, Ituri, Haut-Uélé, and both Kasaï provinces), there will more than likely be continuing back-and-forth population movements throughout the outlook period.
    • Steady depreciation of the Congolese franc: The value of the Congolese franc is continuing to drop against the U.S. dollar. It is down by 32.3 percent since December 2016 and by 8.6 percent since the month of April. In time, this devaluation of the Congolese franc will significantly affect food prices, particularly prices for imports made in U.S. dollars. This is a contributing factor in the weakened purchasing power of poor households and the upward movement in the market prices of certain foodstuffs.  Follow this link for a description of the situation in the last six months.
    • Wage levels: The steady depreciation in the value of the Congolese franc against the U.S. dollar and important role of the dollar in domestic business transactions could reduce the purchasing power of wages paid in Congolese francs during the outlook period, which would drive up the cost of casual labor.
    • Temporary employment:  The combined effects of the shutdown of certain mining companies and artisanal ore mining operations with the falling world market prices of ore, the shortfall in crop production in areas affected by climatic anomalies during the 2017 “B” growing season, the abandonment of farming activities by many displaced households in conflict areas, and the loss of value by the Congolese franc vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar will likely heighten demand for temporary employment. The resulting shortage of temporary employment opportunities would weaken wage rates for casual labor compared with the cost of living and local purchasing power.
    • Humanitarian assistance: in spite of the ongoing deliveries of humanitarian assistance by U.N. agencies and NGOs partnering with the Congolese government in the wake of the US$ 16.8 million allocation by the DRC  Humanitarian Fund for humanitarian assistance programs in former Kasaï, Tanganyika, and Maniema provinces, several thousand people in need will not be covered by these assistance programs based on the initial assessment of humanitarian needs in the former Kasaï provinces alone at over US$ 64 million.

    Most likely food security outcomes

    June through September 2017

    The ongoing harvests of food crops (maize, beans, potatoes, sweet potatoes, rice, etc.) for the 2017 “B” growing season throughout the eastern part of the country (in North-Kivu, South-Kivu, Maniema, Tshopo, Haut-Uélé, Bas-Uélé, and Ituri) and the main maize harvest in the Southeast (in Haut-Katanga, Haut-Lomami, and Lualaba), with a single growing season, are providing a certain measure of food availability and helping to improve staple food supplies on local markets in spite of the climatic anomalies and fall armyworm infestations of maize crops, resulting in below-average harvests in certain territories (Rutshuru, Beni, and Lubero in North-Kivu; Uvira, Fizi, and Kalehe in South-Kivu; Kabambare, Kibombo, Kasongo, and Kailo in Maniema; and Irumu, Djugu, and Mambasa in Ituri). In addition, the lifting of the ban on maize exports by Zambia will help produce a normal supply of maize and other staple foodstuffs on local markets in the Southeast (in Haut-Katanga, Haut-Lomami, and Lualaba) and improve food availability in that area. This will enable poor households to amass food stocks for the months of June, July, and August 2017, maintaining adequate food consumption. Moreover, the onset of the dry season (July and August), coinciding with land preparation work for growing season A (between September 2017 and January 2018) and creating conducive conditions for other types of temporary employment in activities such as charcoal production, brick-making, freight shipping services between rural crop-growing areas and high-consumption areas, could enable poor households to diversify their sources of income in spite of the steady depreciation in the value of the Congolese franc against the U.S. dollar and help facilitate their food access. Thus, poor households in this area will continue to have adequate food consumption, with a certain amount of dietary diversity, which would put the area in the Minimal (IPC Phase 1) phase of food insecurity.

    However, “B” season crops (maize, beans, potatoes, and rice) in certain territories in the eastern part of the country (Rutshuru, Beni, and Lubero in North-Kivu; Uvira, Fizi, and Kalehe in South-Kivu; Punia and Kailo in Maniema; and Irumu, Djugu, and Mambasa in Ituri) were affected by an over-two-month-long dry spell between February and May 2017, which impeded their growth. The combined effects of the infestation of maize crops by fall armyworms (Spodoptera frugiperda) and crop diseases (cassava brown streak disease, banana Xanthomonas wilt, and cassava mosaic disease) put the size of harvests for the 2017 “B” growing season below the average for a normal year. This will give households only a months’ worth of food supplies. To bridge the gap, local markets will be stocked with supplies from center markets in major cities imported from other countries, which will cause market disruptions and drive up food prices, curtailing the food access of poor households. There will be limited food access during this period, with nearly half of all food consumed by poor households purchased on the market. There will be a growing shortage of local temporary employment opportunities with many households turning to casual labor, which could bring down pay rates and, thus, reduce the incomes of poor households. Households could have recourse to certain “stressed” strategies such as limiting their number of meals and eating less expensive and less desirable foods and will be unable to engage in certain types of nonfood spending without resorting to coping strategies. This will put these territories in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity.

    Elsewhere, the two former Kasaï provinces and Tanganyika province, where close to 20 percent of the rural population has been displaced by the armed conflicts and tribal fighting in these areas, and certain parts of territories in North-Kivu, South-Kivu, and Maniema provinces with thousands of internally displaced households without access to farmland for the 2017 “B” growing season will produce virtually no crops. Households in these areas will continue to have recourse to the same harsh and irreversible survival strategies they have been following for over six months during this part of the outlook period, including selling off their capital goods, taking their children out of school, limiting their number of meals, selling productive assets, and resorting to theft, economic migration, borrowing, etc. Even with the harvest season underway in other parts of the country, the continued violence in these areas will impede the flow of supplies from markets in other territories or cities across the country, which will mean continuing shortages of market supplies of staple foodstuffs, with limited access to local livelihoods. Local temporary employment opportunities are becoming increasingly scarce with many households resorting to casual labor, which could bring down wage rates and, thus, reduce the incomes of poor households. There will be limited food access during this period when more than half of all food consumed by poor households is purchased on the market, which will significantly affect their food consumption and, more than likely, weaken their nutritional situation. Accordingly this could put these areas in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation.

    October 2017 through January 2018

    With the below-average harvests for the 2017 “B” growing season, households in the eastern part of the country (in North-Kivu, South-Kivu, Maniema, Tshopo, Haut-Uélé, Bas-Uélé, and Ituri) will have depleted their two months’ worth of food stocks by October 2017. Earnings from casual farm labor and other types of temporary employment (in charcoal production, brick-making activities, freight shipping services, etc.) will be used to enroll children in school for the new school year and purchase farm inputs (seeds, farm implements, plant health products, etc.) for the 2017-2018 “A” growing season. Households will resort to increasingly harmful survival strategies during the normal lean season between October and December 2017 such as limiting their number of meals, eating less expensive and less desirable foods, etc. Since this is also the main rainy season, damage to road infrastructure will create rapidly growing shortages on local markets, at a time when poor households will be resorting to market purchases for more than half their food supplies. The resulting low supplies and high demand will create imbalances. There will be a growing scarcity of temporary work at a time when many poor households will be resorting to casual labor, which will affect their incomes. Certain territories in the eastern part of the country (Rutshuru, Beni, and Lubero in North-Kivu; Uvira, Fizi, and Kalehe in South-Kivu; Punia and Kailo in Maniema; and Irumu, Djugu, and Mambasa in Ituri) hit by an over-two-month-long dry spell between February and May 2017 resulting in below-average harvests will be in the same situation. The combined effects of these factors and the devaluation of the Congolese franc against the U.S. dollar will help drive up food prices, curtailing the food access of poor households. Thus, conditions in these areas could be classified in the Stressed (IPC Phase 2) phase of food insecurity.

    On the other hand, households in the former Kasaï provinces and Tanganyika province, where close to 20 percent of the rural population has been displaced by the armed conflicts and tribal fighting in these areas, and in certain parts of territories in North-Kivu, South-Kivu, and Maniema provinces, where thousands of internally displaced households had no access to farmland for the 2017 “B” growing season and, thus, produced almost no crops, will continue to resort to increasingly harsh and irreversible survival strategies such as selling capital goods, taking their children out of school, limiting their number of meals, selling productive assets, theft, economic migration, borrowing, etc. The lean season generally extending from November to December will begin ahead of schedule, by September, in spite of the deliveries of humanitarian assistance to these areas by U.N. agencies and NGOs partnering with the government, which cover less than five percent of the rural population of affected areas. The continued violence in these areas and resulting population movements will impede the flow of market supplies from other territories or cities across the country, which will mean continuing shortages of market supplies of staple foodstuffs, with limited livelihood access for internally displaced populations. Local temporary employment opportunities will become increasingly scarce with many households resorting to casual labor. There will be limited food access during this period when over half of all food consumed by poor households is purchased on the market. Poor households will resort to increasingly harsher survival strategies that could significantly affect their food consumption and even weaken their nutritional situation. Accordingly, these areas will remain in a Crisis (IPC Phase 3) situation.


    EVENTS THAT COULD CHANGE THE OUTLOOK

    Table 1: Possible events in the next eight months that could change the outlook

    Area

    Event

    Impact on food security conditions

    National

    Plentiful rainfall during the 2017-2018 “A” growing season

    The flooding of areas along the shores of lakes and the banks of rivers and streams would destroy crops, resulting in below-average levels of crop production.

    Climate anomalies delaying the beginning of the rains for the 2017-2018 “A” growing season

    This would disrupt crop calendars, prolonging the normal duration of the lean season, resulting in the implementation of increasingly harmful survival strategies by poor households.

    Drop and stabilization of the exchange rate for the Congolese franc against the U.S. dollar 

    This would stabilize market prices for food products.

    Expansion in the armyworm infestation of maize crops already reported in certain provinces

    There would be a smaller than average maize harvest for season A and continuing limited food availability, contributing to the higher than usual prices of maize and curtailing the access of poor households to this foodstuff.

    Renewed restrictions on maize exports by Zambia to the DRC

    This would limit the availability of maize crops on markets in the Southeast, causing prices to rise and curtailing the food access of poor households in this area.

    Implementation of effective control measures against crop predators (fall armyworms) and other crop diseases

    The 2017-2018 “A” growing season would go normally, producing average or above-average harvests.

    Eradication of armed groups by the FARDC (the official army)

    Internally displaced populations would return to their respective villages and resume their lives, with access to their normal livelihoods.

    LHZ CD08

    Lifting of the restrictions on food exports by Burundi and Tanzania

    This could improve food availability on area markets and stabilize staple food prices.

    Close of the fishing season on Lake Tanganyika during the lean season

    There would be another sharp drop in the incomes of households dependent on these activities, causing them to resort to increasingly unsound survival strategies.

    Take-over of new villages by armed groups 

    There would be larger than expected population movements and more severe disruptions to household livelihoods, affecting many people.

    Excessive rainfall

    The resulting flooding of fields would destroy crops and threaten harvests.

    LHZs CD23/24

    Suspension of fighting, stabilization of conditions in these areas, and return of DPs to their home villages

    The 43,000 displaced households will be able to resume their livelihoods and crop production, eventually improving food availability in livelihood zone CD03.

    Control of invading armyworms and cassava brown streak disease

    Improvement in the quality and quantity of national crop production

    Large-scale deliveries of food assistance to this area

    Improvement in household food consumption and reduction in current malnutrition rates through a more nutrient-rich diet

    Lifting of the restriction on Tanzanian exports to the DRC

    Better food availability on local markets, eventually bringing down food prices

    Figures Current food security outcomes for June 2017

    Figure 1

    Current food security outcomes for June 2017

    Source: FEWS NET

    SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Figure 2

    SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR

    Source: FEWS NET

    Figure 1. Carte des mouvements des populations en RDC, mars 2017

    Figure 3

    Figure 1. Carte des mouvements des populations en RDC, mars 2017

    Source: OCHA RDC

    Figure 2. Prévisions saisonnières consolidées : Anomalies probables d’octobre à décembre 2017

    Figure 4

    Figure 2. Prévisions saisonnières consolidées : Anomalies probables d’octobre à décembre 2017

    Source: NOAA CPC

    To project food security outcomes, FEWS NET develops a set of assumptions about likely events, their effects, and the probable responses of various actors. FEWS NET analyzes these assumptions in the context of current conditions and local livelihoods to arrive at a most likely scenario for the coming eight months. Learn more here.

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